Fallows on the Chinese Military
James Fallows shares a few thoughts on the Chinese military, and how its comportment appears a little shabby to American eyes. My only experience with actual PLA soldiers, as opposed to the ubiquitous uniformed security types in Beijing, was this group of recruits undergoing some hand to hand training on a rare smogless autumn day in Beijing. Their throwing mats are lined up beneath willow trees on a sun-dappled riverside walkway.
Every single one of these kids seemed to be thinking the same thing I was thinking: “this may be the single most pleasant hour anyone has ever spent in the Chinese army.”
The Chinese military faces real problems and threats that are not American. XianXing is a hotbed of Muslim separatism and terror. There were arrests today in connection with a terrorist plot at the Beijing Olympics, and an attempted hijacking intended to crash a plane into a building fought off by passengers.
Uigher separatists are real, have fought rebellions against the Chinese since the 1600’s, the latest one dating back to the 1870’s. Tens of millions died and the Uighur Muslims have not forgotten their aspirations.
China borders Pakistan, and the Pakistani Islamists dislike the Chinese presence there even as the traditional counterweight to India, have connections to the Uighurs. We hold at Gitmo a number of Uighurs picked up in Afghanistan. We can’t turn them over to the Chinese because we’re afraid they’ll be shot out of hand.
In a counter-insurgency the traditional Chinese military application is lots of manpower and overwhelm the enemy … including colonization by Han Chinese backed up by the military. I suspect much of the Chinese Military is structured around soaking up excess manpower.
— Jim Rockford · Mar 10, 06:52 AM · #
Something else that could put a major damper on Chinese military ambitions: population control has been so strict for so long that there are now tens of millions of Chinese parents with just one child, tens of millions of elderly Chinese with just one grandchild.
Those only sons have been doted on and spoiled for most of their lives. They will not be eager to go off to war, and their families will NOT happily send their boys off around the globe to be cannon fodder.
— astorian · Mar 10, 03:16 PM · #
The PLA has shrunk in half — from 4million to 2million soldiers — over the last 20 years although spending has rocketed. I don’t think anyone expects the dollar per soldier rate to decline any time soon, making it pretty easy to figure out where their military structural priorities lie.
I wish a US presidential candidate would run on the following foreign policy platform: “We will spend twice as much on military than evil China.” Ironically, that would mean something like a 50% reduction in defense spending at home — and I image (maybe foolheartedly) that we would then see spending slow in China as well. I see a clear Sino-U.S. arms race; and all the the rhetoric on the U.S. side seems to affirm.
Great blog, Matt. I will definitely stay tuned.
— walker · Mar 16, 10:18 AM · #