Gore-Lieberman Grudge Match
No one talks about Joe Lieberman as a running mate for John McCain anymore — but they should. I was as convinced as most that Lieberman wouldn’t make sense. Given McCain’s well-documented difficulties with the Republican party’s conservative base, it seemed senseless to nominate a social liberal. But a Stuart Rothenberg column changed my mind.
But wouldn’t social conservatives, in particular, go bananas, since Lieberman is moderate or liberal on most issues other than Iraq? He supports abortion rights, generally votes with organized labor and is an unapologetic environmentalist. Conservatives would revolt, wouldn’t they?
Probably not. While there would be the usual fist-pounding from some “movement conservatives,” their anger at the selection would quickly dissipate when they saw the fury unleashed by liberals and Democratic bloggers.
I think this is exactly right. Then there is the small matter of Lieberman’s support for the surge strategy.
Wouldn’t the selection of Lieberman only emphasize Iraq and McCain’s support for the surge, making an unpopular war even more front and center for McCain?
Of course, but does anyone really believe that Democrats won’t wrap the surge around McCain’s neck if that’s in their interest? It doesn’t matter who McCain picks for his running mate. Even if he picks a governor from Minnesota or South Carolina, McCain owns the surge already.
And imagine if Obama goes on to choose Al Gore as his running mate, for all the reasons advanced by Michael Grunwald in 2006. He’s certainly a far stronger pick than Kathleen Sebelius. The danger is that a Gore pick could make Obama look like a lightweight — Bush looked shrewd when he picked Cheney, to be sure, but we know have that ugly precedent in mind. Obama has other strong options, including Ted Strickland, Ed Rendell, and Tim Kaine. But Gore would be a game-changer.
Which would lead us to the Gore vs. Lieberman vice presidential debates. What a pleasure that would be to watch!
I doubt there would be that much genuine outrage on the part of Democrats if Lieberman ran as McCain’s VP nominee. Pretty much everyone has written him off already, and only a few get why Harry Reid hasn’t booted him from the party already. This would be something that even Reid couldn’t let slide, and if the predictions about the change in the Senate are true, there will be less need to keep counting Holy Joe on our side of the aisle.
To be sure, there would be plenty of feigned outrage, but 99% of that would be for pure campaigning effect.
— Brendan · May 12, 09:25 AM · #
Obama isn’t picking Gore, Reihan.
I think Brendan’s got it wrong. Look, whoever McCain picks a lot of liberal commentators will spew outrage because that’s what partisan commentators on both sides do nowadays. And that’ll probably get the results Rothenberg predicts — plus, Lieberman has never been much disliked by the right despite the positions mentioned above.
Which is surprising. I was in California when Grey Davis neatly, surgically excised Dick Riordan from the Republican gubernatorial primary by running ads alerting Republican voters to his “evil” liberal ways, in a head-spinning display of political jiu-jitsu. Something similar could be done with, say, a Lieberman pick — but it won’t be because I think a lot of political commentary nowadyas is a kind of orthodoxy policing.
Mind you I still think the — forign-policy hawkish — Hillary Clinton is the ideal McCain cross-aisle VP pick.
— Sanjay · May 12, 01:18 PM · #
I don’t think Tim Kaine is that strong a pick for VP. He is in his first and only term (as VA has a one-term limit for governors). He rode Mark Warner’s legacy to election. This is not to say that he is a bad governor, just unremarkable. At the same time, he has proven to be a bit politically tin-eared (read: the silver line extension to Dulles- Elevated v. Tunnel). The two other Virginians are much stronger contenders, Mark Warner and Jim Webb. Webb especially, though it is clear that he is a loose cannon. Keeping him on message might be tough.
— richard · May 12, 07:15 PM · #
<p>I was going to make the same point as Richard about Jim Webb being a much stronger pick than Kaine, but since it’s been said, I’ll add this gloss (which I tried to leave on Larison’s site yesterday, only to be foiled by the comment bots): Webb looks especially good for Obama because at present he can’t get Scot-Irish votes. All the talk about working-class whites is really, when you look at the geography, really directed at the <a href=“http://www.jameswebb.com/articles/wallstjrnl/scotsirishvote.htm”>Scots-Irish who settled Appalachia,</a> then moved out into the upper south (Arkansas, Tennessee), the lower plains (Oklahoma), and the iron belt (Ohio, Indiana, Michigan). Obama’s trouble in those states, plus PA, KY and WV…it’s clearly because the Scots Irish haven’t taken to him one bit. Picking Webb would be one of Obama’s best hopes of fetching them.</p>
— dgj · May 12, 07:30 PM · #