I Also Do Predictions
President: Obama wins with between 350 and 400 Electoral Votes (he gets 353 if he wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, most of which are in the bag and all of which are more likely than not except for North Carolina which is probably slightly a reach; he gets 396 if he also picks up Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia, and I don’t think there are any states beyond these that are even really plausible, unless you think he could actually win Arizona which I don’t).
Senate: Democrats get to 60 by retaining all their own seats and picking up Virginia,
Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska, Minnesota and, in the upset of the night, Georgia. (I will claim a moral victory if they only win Georgia on a runoff, and also if they get to 60 by some other means – winning Kentucky, for example.)
he gets 353 if he wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina
You left Nevada out, although it’s in your math.
— right · Nov 4, 02:15 PM · #
Correct. My bad. It was late when I wrote this.
— Noah Millman · Nov 4, 02:21 PM · #
My prediction agrees with your upper bound (I think the ground game will make the difference in all the close states) and adds the Omaha single electoral vote, which I think you forgot existed, to get a total of 397 electoral votes for Obama.
— alejandro · Nov 4, 07:11 PM · #