I Also Do Predictions

President: Obama wins with between 350 and 400 Electoral Votes (he gets 353 if he wins the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, most of which are in the bag and all of which are more likely than not except for North Carolina which is probably slightly a reach; he gets 396 if he also picks up Missouri, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia, and I don’t think there are any states beyond these that are even really plausible, unless you think he could actually win Arizona which I don’t).

Senate: Democrats get to 60 by retaining all their own seats and picking up Virginia,
Colorado, New Mexico, Oregon, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Alaska, Minnesota and, in the upset of the night, Georgia. (I will claim a moral victory if they only win Georgia on a runoff, and also if they get to 60 by some other means – winning Kentucky, for example.)