Brief Thoughts on South Africa
Will be back home tomorrow AM, at which point I hope to have lots of US domestic policy to talk about at The Agenda, which I’ve neglected this week due to connectivity and travel out-of-itness. Not a good way to build an audience. I’ll do better, comrades.
But for now I’m still fixated on South African puzzles. I’ve followed South African affairs for many years now, yet this is my first trip here, though hopefully not my last. This morning I had the pleasure of meeting a brilliant young political thinker and strategist based in Johannesburg, a friend of a friend. I’d characterize his views as left-libertarian, and though he identifies with the ANC political consensus — he sees a split between the SACP-COSATU hard left and a meliorist mainstream that marries social democratic commitments with a neoliberal approach to the macroeconomic environment — he’s very interested in cultivating alternative political voices in the country, for obvious reasons. Between meeting various worthies under the auspices of this Brand South Africa trip, I’ve been reading the kind of books I normally avoid: doorstop political histories, including the very well-regarded Gevisser biography of Thabo Mbeki, now available in abridged and updated form; and R.W. Johnson’s history of post-apartheid SA, which has added poignancy as I understand Johnson has just narrowly avoided death. Johnson’s perspective is jaundiced at best, and some would call it apocalyptic. I find it a useful corrective, if difficult to square with my impressions and those of Alec Russell, who wrote the more breezy, journalistic account of the Mandela-to-Zuma era that I read on the way here.
Why does South Africa matter? Its Gini coefficient is essentially identical to that of Brazil, so it’s certainly not unique in the challenges it faces. Yet it also reproduces some of the tensions and anxieties of a post-conflict society like Iraq, which I think of as akin to a sprawling inner-city on a national scale devastated by poverty and violent oppression. The Shia majority was so under heel for so long that it bears the marks of serious psychological damage. The same is arguably true of South Africa’s majority. One often hears that whereas Zimbabwean migrants are highly educated and possessed of a cultural self-confidence that I as an American take for granted, there was an intense internalization of the logic of apartheid, of racial inferiority. Unraveling this is a slow process, as the older generation has imbued the post-apartheid generation with this residue of cultural self-doubt. I’m a little wary of this kind of analysis, but it rings true.
Crudely, I guess I think South Africa matters because it strikes me as a microcosm of the world. The awkward co-existence of First and Third World ways of life in a single state is very vivid and immediate here, but of course it exists throughout most of the world. The middle-income countries — the Brazils, the Mexicos, the Egypts, the South Africas — are the future. Everything depends on their getting it right.
Wait a second. Toto’s “Africa” is playing in the lobby right now. This is my favorite song. In light of the setting, this seems like a cannily ironic gesture. My mind is blown.
One community that has flourished in post-apartheid is the Asian minority, which has benefited from its relative privilege, the robustness of Asian civil society institutions, and also the fact that Asians are beneficiaries of racial preferences. Firms that hire Asians are given credit for hiring the underrepresented, a priority under the program of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment, yet Asians are arguably overrepresented in many sectors. This will be a tough policy to unravel, not least because Asians were, like members of the Jewish minority, overrepresented in the leadership of the ANC in exile, quite in contrast to the so-called Coloured minority, an incredibly diverse group — some descended from enslaved Malays, some from the Khoisan, virtually all with some degree of European ancestry — that was an artifact of the apartheid state’s peculiar ethnographic logic, yet that has a very vital (and arguably problematic) sense of political identity.
As you can probably tell, I don’t have very systematic thoughts at the moment. The more I learn, the more I have to revise what had been settled views. This isn’t to say that my original assessments have been overturned — in broad outline, I basically believe the same things about the country and its prospects (fairly bright, R.W. Johnson’s brilliant polemics notwithstanding). It’s more in the fine-grained detail.
I haven’t spend much time in middle-income countries. I think it agrees with me. There’s something about the crazy energy of this phase of development, the self-fashioning, the reinvention of nationhood, etc. All gross generalizations, of course.
Also re: South Africa, I wrote a flawed column on what Iran might learn from the South African experience. I have to say, I wish I had more time to reflect on the relevant issues. It was a product of some very lengthy conversations. Those of you who find my neocon commitments distasteful might find it interesting.
I feel really lucky to get to think out loud. Thanks for indulging me, TAS readers.
The Best Thing There Ever Was In South Africa Is Long Gone
— Tony Comstock · Jun 29, 12:55 PM · #
Also this should have been linked, no?
— Tony Comstock · Jun 29, 01:06 PM · #
Wow…flawed is right.
Why do neocons feel the need to pretend that Islam doesn’t exist in Iran, or that the Green Wave is some cartoon caricature of the brave democratic students against the mad mullahs?
Qom is the gravity well of power in Iran and it from Qom that we will see a solution emerge.
— matoko_chan · Jun 29, 02:24 PM · #
Economically, I think these middle-income countries are going to have a hard time. The top end services are dominated by developed countries, while Asian emerging countries are undercutting on manufacturing and increasingly services.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Asia’s growth has been paralleled by stagnation in Latin American/Middle East/African middle income countries. Globalization has done wonders for the richest and poorest, but may not be so great for those in the middle.
High inequality, low trust, and high diversity make for poor institutions. That said, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa all seem to have highly successful cash transfer/human capital building programs. These may be the key to making redistribution work while building up the skills of the bottom. Building up savings—which lag substantially behind Asian peers—seems like a good idea as well. The good news is that these days, a developed country-style lifestyle can be had for lower and lower income levels.
— Thorfinn · Jun 29, 05:51 PM · #
I’m glad to read about your enthusiasm for the particular vibrancy of middle-income countries because I’ve felt the same things about the middle income countries I’ve visited. Before I got engaged and decided to have a settled family life in a high-income city, I wanted to do business in emerging economies, precisely because of this awesome vibrancy, which is a very enthralling thing.
— PEG · Jun 29, 06:37 PM · #
Reihan, perhaps it would be more productive and valid for you write a comparison between SA and Israel.
As if.
Your new masters won’t let you say boo about either Israel OR Palin, will they?
— matoko_chan · Jun 29, 07:21 PM · #
two points
1) the indian community itself is diverse. i believe in south africa the gujarati merchant class which serves as the elite is muslim muslim. the rest of the indian population is hindu, christian, muslim, and the tamils form their own subcommunity within the community.
2) re: coloreds. recent genetic data (see sarah tishkoff’s paper in science) show a surprisingly large amount of indian ancestry, perhaps even more than european. some indian ancestry is of course expected, there were indians in south africa early on. simon van der stel, first governor of the cape and last commander, was 1/4 indian (mother was half-brown).
— razib · Jun 29, 08:32 PM · #
I’m curious to see any thoughts concerning sports in SA. Especially in light of the Confederation Cup final round held in Jo’burg, the Lions rugby tour of South Africa and the Proteas loss at the hands of Pakistan in cricket. This is all big stuff seen from outside the USA (excepting the US soccer community). And there’s also the World Cup next year.
For instance, if I’m not mistaken, the soccer games were immensely popular & big money makers, whereas the Lions fixtures versus the Springboks & the provincial sides haven’t been commercially successful. There’s alot to be analyzed in that statement especially if the Lions tour turns out to be a dud.
— JB · Jun 29, 10:30 PM · #
JB, one of the problems with the Lions Tour was that the South African Rugby Union set ticket prices sky-high. Add to that the concurrence of the Confed Cup and I think there was a lot more national interest in the football.
From watching the games on television it was great to see so many Britons in red filling the stadiums. Their sports tourism definitely made up the difference in capacity but I think it’s also important to realize that this tour is perhaps not as classy as, say, a solo English tour or the Tri-Nations.
— Hard Rain · Jul 2, 08:23 AM · #