Hot Air on Climategate and Copenhagen
I have a diavlog up at bloggingheads with Dave Roberts on (what else?) Climategate and Copenhagen. I think it was a productive discussion.
I have a diavlog up at bloggingheads with Dave Roberts on (what else?) Climategate and Copenhagen. I think it was a productive discussion.
Commenting is closed for this article.
Jim:
I have only had a chance to listen to about 20 minutes of your discussion with Roberts. I hope to finish it. However, I wonder if you have any thoughts on Tony Blair’s comments:
— jd · Dec 14, 08:12 PM · #
I think that once you accept that (1) the risk of this being a big deal is not trivial, and (2) that the expected case does not justify doing what advocates support (ie, cap-and-trade, carbon tax, etc.), then uncertainty about the science becomes an argument for action. It seems to me to be the most amusing irony of the whole debate that those arguing for or against the science (generally reasoning backward from their preferred policy outcome) seem unaware of this – and that it probably doesn’t matter anyway in the real politcial debate.
best,
Jim
— Jim Manzi · Dec 14, 08:46 PM · #
Maybe I“m misunderstanding you, but you seem to be implying that uncertainty about the science IS actually a reason FOR doing something about global warming?
— jd · Dec 14, 11:05 PM · #
Exactly.
In a stylized line of reasoning, if the expected value of damages is less than the expected cost of avoiding them, then with no uncertainty about the outcome we would do nothing. If there is risk that the damages might be higher or lower than expected, then there is some chance that the damages will be highier than the costs of avoiding them.
— Jim Manzi · Dec 14, 11:24 PM · #
You think that people just woke up one morning and decided that they were paying too little for gas, and then came up with the rationale for making it more expensive? I don’t understand what you mean when you talk about people “working backwards from their preferred policy outcome.” Certainly conservatives are doing this, but the outcome climate science is “working backwards from” is the outcome where cities aren’t inundated and major agricultural regions don’t become deserts.
— Chet · Dec 18, 07:09 PM · #