Jonathan Chait, football guru
I’m not sure that anyone who reads The American Scene is all that interested in college football, but just in case, you may read on to see my vicious horsecollar tackle of Jonathan Chait.
This morning Slate re-posted a 2002 essay by Jonathan Chait on the “myth” that college football teams from the South are faster than those from the North. It was a dumb piece then, and it’s still dumb now. The “Southern Speed Myth” may well be a myth, but Chait doesn’t provide any evidence that it’s so. This is actually a classic example of throwing a few statistics at an issue to make it sound as though you’re a serious mythbuster, when in fact the statistics are irrelevant and the myth remains unexplored. So let’s roll up our sleeves and get to the bottom of this world-defining issue:
Chait: “Southern teams and their fans have perpetuated the myth by making a fetish of their recruits' dazzling 40-yard dash times . . . The only objective measure available for college athletes is the electronic timing performed by pro scouts at the NFL Draft Combine. Casey Calder, an Internet college football analyst, compared the times of skill position players from Northern schools versus those who played in the South. He found that wide receivers from Northern schools actually outran their Southern counterparts: The Northerners, on average, ran the 40 in 4.502 seconds, while the Southerners ran it in 4.548. Southern and Northern cornerbacks finished in a virtual dead heat, 4.535 to 4.555, respectively.” But the Myth focuses on overall team speed, not just speed at certain positions; plus, the NFL Draft Combine only tests players who have a legitimate shot at making the pros, which means that many of the slower players from any and all schools will not be part of the testing. The sample of players that Chait chooses skews the data considerably.
Chait again: “Or consider high-school 100-meter dash times. I looked at the 10 fastest times posted by high-school runners over the last two years in two states, Michigan and Florida. The Florida average was slightly faster, 10.77 seconds versus 10.78. But the two fastest Michigan runners, Kelly Baraka and Charles Rogers, outpaced anybody from Florida. Both, by the way, play Big 10 football.” But the Myth isn’t about the speed of any old residents of Northern and Southern states, or even about the speed of athletes; it’s about the speed of football players — and, once again, about overall team speed, not the track times of two particular players. But Chait thinks he has done enough serious research to deem the idea that Southern football players are faster than Northern ones a “canard.”
Just think about last year’s national championship game between Ohio State and Florida. Florida probably didn’t have anyone as fast as Ted Ginn, Jr., one of Ohio State’s wide receivers; but the Florida defense overall was much, much faster than Ohio State’s offense, which is why OSU’s quarterback Troy Smith had the worst day of his life. (Ginn’s early injury didn’t help.) Games like that are what sustain the Myth, which — at the level of generality that invokes amorphous concepts like “North” and “South,” and fails to ask where players come from, as opposed to what college they attend — probably is a myth. If there is any substance to the idea at all, it is probably that some Southern coaches place a greater emphasis on recruiting the fastest players at every position. But in any case, Chait doesn’t do anything at all to support his claim. Damn Slate for re-posting this canard!
I agree with your analysis on the article – it relies on useless statistics and he proves nothing. I’ve had an on again-off again argument with a southern friend (he’s from Florida, I’m from Michigan) about the myth and neither of us have found reasonable proof that he is right. Also, I’m quite certain Kelly Baraka never played for Michigan.
http://media.www.michigandaily.com/media/storage/paper851/news/2002/04/25/Sports/Baraka.Dismissed.By.Carr.Wont.Return-1411244.shtml
— Jeff · Jan 4, 06:59 PM · #
It’s kind of classic Jon Chait reasoning, actually. “Southern conference football teams are fast? That can’t be! I’ve walked on the Miami beach, and don’t notice people walking much faster than me!”
— J Mann · Jan 4, 08:17 PM · #
Alan, is there any subject you won’t tackle? You’re the quintessential professor of English!
— Joules · Jan 4, 09:06 PM · #
It’s also pretty funny that, according to Chait, Northern wide receivers were “faster” than Southern wide receivers because they did the 40 in 4.502 vs. 4.548 seconds (a difference of 0.046 seconds), while Southern and Northern cornerbacks were in a “virtual dead heat” at 4.535 vs. 4.555 seconds (a difference of 0.020 seconds).
After all, it’s intuitively obvious that a difference of 0.046 seconds means “faster”, while a difference of 0.020 seconds – almost half as large – is a “virtual dead heat”.
— Jim Manzi · Jan 4, 09:35 PM · #
Jim, thanks for pointing that out! Honest injun, I was going to say the same but decided that the post was too long already.
And Joules, I’m afraid you’re right: there really is no subject I won’t take on. Pathetic, really. . . .
— Alan Jacobs · Jan 4, 10:50 PM · #
I would just point out, while agreeing with you on these specifics, that these complaints in no way confirm the myth of the faster Southern teams, which (as these sorts of things usually are) is probably based on other anecdotal evidence and specious reasoning.
— Freddie · Jan 5, 03:28 AM · #
Agreed, Freddie — I did say that in my post.
— Alan Jacobs · Jan 5, 06:10 PM · #
True!
— Freddie · Jan 6, 01:16 AM · #