Hold-em, Fold-em, Run
If I understand the logic of the McCain camp, the neoconservative intelligentsia and knowledgeable center-right commentators on the horrible situation in Georgia, it looks something like this:
- Russia has called our bluff and dared us to make good on any implicit promises to Georgia that we would protect Georgian territorial integrity.
- Our bluff having been called, we now have no good options, as we have no real points of leverage to force Russia out, and no credibility as an honest broker between the Russians and the Georgians. Any cease-fire will probably take place on Russian terms, and the Georgians will know not to rely on the West to protect them. This lesson will, presumably, be well-learned by other small countries inclined to rely on American protection against large and dangerous adversaries. So even if this war ends non-disastrously for ordinary Georgians, it’s bad for us.
- Therefore, we should have bluffed harder, going all-in with an explicit guarantee, because if we had done that Russia wouldn’t have dared call our bluff, but would have backed down and allowed Georgia to retake South Ossetia by force.
Interestingly, the guys who earn a living playing poker don’t go all in on every hand. But then, McCain is a craps guy.
Anyone know whether Obama has ever won money from anyone who wasn’t a lobbyist for the Illinois State Legislature?
Interesting game. The only way to win is not to play.
— Freddie · Aug 11, 10:29 PM · #
Therefore, we should have bluffed harder, going all-in with an explicit guarantee, because if we had done that Russia wouldn’t have dared call our bluff, but would have backed down and allowed Georgia to retake South Ossetia by force.
This is wrongheaded, to be sure. No need to be promiscuous with our “blanque check” protections; it’s an insufferably obvious thing to have to say, but tripwires tied to automatic violence should be reserved for vital interests only.
However, there is the question of what to do now, re: other potential targets on Russia’s periphery. My first thought is to facilitate an Eastern European security bloc, an EETO, and establish firm lines of logistics and cooperation between it and NATO, without the overt security guarantees reserved for intra-NATO allies.
Anybody know of other suggestions for the immediate future?
— kris sargent · Aug 11, 11:48 PM · #
The first thing we need is a thorough investigation of what Georgia was hearing from the U.S. and Israel, and whether that encouraged Georgia to recklessly start a war with Russia. Back in 1990, our ambassador to Iraq April Glaspie ineptly gave Saddam Hussein the impression that it would be okay with us if he invaded Kuwait. Perhaps something similar happened here.
By the way, the Israeli media is full of stories on all the connections between various Israelis and the Georgian government (e.g., the 30 year old Defense Minister of Georgia used to live in Israel). For some reason, though, I don’t expect a Congressional investigation into that!
— Steve Sailer · Aug 12, 10:14 AM · #
While I’m not in favor of NATO expansion to Georgia, the whole framework of this post seems off. Russia didn’t call any bluff, because we’d already folded when expansion was voted down this year. To the extent we gave tacit permission to Georgia’s action, and therefore possibility implied we’d support it, that permission and implication was made quietly to Georgia, not to Russia. So there was no reason for Russia to believe the US or NATO would intervene.
Now NATO expansion to Georgia would presumably be a bluff, but it wouldn’t be a new, harder bluff; we haven’t tried bluffing yet. And while I don’t think it would be worth the risk, its far from obvious that Russia would be willing to call that bluff, for much the same reasons we’re not willing to intervene now.
— Alex · Aug 12, 03:21 PM · #
Actually, that’s the reasoning I came to without reading any neocon blogs. And I still don’t see how it’s flawed. With Georgia in NATO, of COURSE the Russians wouldn’t have invaded. They would’ve raised hell about Iran, North Korea and other stuff. But the reasoning still holds. The Russians called the US’s bluff, the US had its pants down, and now we’re all doomed. Ok, maybe not doomed. But screwed royally? Yes.
— PEG · Aug 12, 05:00 PM · #
But screwed royally? Yes.
How are we royally screwed?
— Freddie · Aug 12, 10:53 PM · #
How are we royally screwed? Read this article from the WSJ and pay particular attention to the map.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121858681748935101.html
— The Reticulator · Aug 13, 06:18 AM · #
As to the last: “When he was a young state politician in Illinois, Barack Obama played his cards right. “He had the stone face,” said Senator Terry Links, who hosted weekly poker games at his home. ‘He didn’t stay in hands if he didn’t think he had a chance of winning.’
— southpaw · Aug 16, 05:12 PM · #