Taking bets on Palin-Biden

Anticipation for tonight’s VP debate has inevitably split itself into two scenarios. In the first, Sarah Palin performs miserably, filling the hall with excruciating silences, lopping off sentences before they have the chance to become sentences, opening for display a vast tundra of mortifying ignorance. Joe Biden doesn’t much figure in this first scenario. In the second scenario, she exceeds the low expectations to one degree or another while Joe Biden reminds us that he’s not exactly Bertrand Russell either. In this second scenario, Palin actually wins the debate. I would like to stake out my own position by saying I have no idea which way this will tilt – my general inclination is to expect the prevailing narrative to suffer a reversal, but Palin has been impressively bad so far, so who knows? – and also to ask for predictions from readers.

Update: I just realized it’s wimpy to solicit a prediction that I couldn’t bring myself to make. My prediction rests on the belief that that metaphysics of the prevailing narrative are, as a rule, simply too unstable. They almost require a correction. So, I predict that Palin will triumph by surviving, and that Biden will help her in this.