Does Universal Health Care Reduce Employment?
Three academics claim to have a preliminary answer with the provenance of empirical science. William H. Dow, Arindrajit Dube and Carrie Hoverman Colla recently had an editorial in the New York Times arguing that San Francisco’s “near universal health care program” initiated early last year has not contributed to reduced employment despite the fact that “many businesses there had to raise their health spending substantially to meet the new requirements.”
Over at the Daily Dish I try to make the point that their argument doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.
Actually, it just might increase unemployment in other ways.
One could dream that the paper-flipper layer, the HMO/PPO bureaucrats (the mirror image of the Wall Street sub-prime paper-flipper class) would become instantaneously unemployed.
One could only hope.
Your FOV is very narrow, Dr. Manzi. Just as the three “academics” are not considering the potential negative interactions arising from a national healthcare scenario in the POV of employers, you seem to be blinded to the potential benefits……like cheaper group programs and the switch to preventative health benefits once the insurers realize the market cost savings.
The three “academics” are just saying, no sign so far.
Absence of sign is far less definitive in trend analysis.
Inadequate time period, sure.
It seems to meh….both sides are just waiving their arms.
Perhaps they cannot say anything definitive….but neither can you.
One might even think you are biased.
;)
— matoko_chan · Aug 31, 07:30 PM · #
matoko:
Hence this paragraph in the post:
— Jim Manzi · Aug 31, 08:29 PM · #
I’m glad to see you back on the ‘methodology’ beat, Jim. Speaking of The Atlantic, this Goldhill article tracks my preferences pretty closely (which means it must be right!). Safety net plus market plus insurance reform is a workable solution, nicht va?
— Kristoffer V. Sargent · Aug 31, 09:24 PM · #
Jim: Always enjoy your thoughtful analyses and comments. FWIW, I’ve worked in San Mateo County most of my career, and am still gainfully employed. Indeed, my company’s even hiring. Did work in San Francisco for a short while, and while it had its perks, usually it seemed like a big headache.
— John Bejarano · Sep 1, 02:10 AM · #
Kristoffer:
Well, nothing rocks the hit counter like a 2,000 word analysis of quantitative methods concluding that causality is uncertain.
But hey, want to see something cool…
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— Jim Manzi · Sep 1, 02:10 AM · #
so…… yeah, Dr. Riddick….you stand on opposite sides of the room and wave your arms at each other?
Is that helpful?
— matoko_chan · Sep 1, 03:47 AM · #
So, they’re saying that there’s no reason to believe that expansion of health coverage leads to increased unemployment.
You seem to be saying that they don’t have enough evidence to reach that conclusion.
And that means… what, exactly? It would seem to mean “we don’t know that increased health coverage will increase unemployment.” Is that the long and the short of it?
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— Jim Manzi · Sep 1, 11:38 AM · #
Umm….Dr. Manzi.
This blog is about teh culture.
Shoes are culture.
In no fashion is this blog devoted to factual accuracy or empirical data.
It is about giving affirmative action life-support to conservative failmemes so your party can take back teh culture.
Sadly, your political disenfranchisement is not the result of the loss of your cultural representation…..cultural disenfranchisement is a symptom of your near-complete academic disenfranchisement.
You can’t take back culture unless you take back academe first..
Consider Murray’s Kael graphic that he made to poke fun at pointy-headed intellectuals……do you know what struck me?
Where are the culture creators and where are the culture consumers?
Where are the universisty professors and college teachers?
You need to have young conservatives with college degrees going into film, journalism, science, arts, technology. All you have are business students and bible colleges.
Cultural disenfranchisement is a symptom….not the cause.
— matoko_chan · Sep 1, 01:19 PM · #
Diesel Jeans too!
No more tarrying at the Propylaea, Jim. Henceforth, your words will be spoken in the bookmarks of society.
— Kristoffer V. Sargent · Sep 1, 03:00 PM · #
@Chet: He’s saying that the research in question is insufficient to answer the question either way, so it is inaccurate for the researchers to claim that it does.
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