Bad Things That Haven't Happened
In the spirit of getting a random discussion going: what’s a big-deal bad thing that you have confidently expected to happen for some time, but for whatever reason just hasn’t happened yet?
For example: lots and lots of people have been assuming for some time that a really horrible war would break out between India and Pakistan. But it hasn’t happened yet. Maybe, God forbid, it will one day, but so far it hasn’t. And the longer it doesn’t, the more interesting becomes the question as to why it hasn’t, and how we should re-think our understanding of that conflict.
So: what bad things have you been expecting for some time that still haven’t happened?
Here are three of mine:
- The Ukrainian civil war. It remains very surprising to me that Ukraine has managed to stay together as an independent and unitary state. Its eastern provinces and the Crimean region are very Russian-oriented, but the bulk of the country has wanted to escape Russian domination for a couple of generations at least. It has very little history as an independent political entity, having spent most of its history as part of the Polish-Lithuanian kingdom, then part of the Russian Empire, then part of the Soviet Union, and poorly developed political and economic institutions. And it’s not like the neighborhood isn’t full of secessionist groups who try to escape newly independent countries and rejoin the former metropole – Ossetia in Georgia, Trans-Dniestria in Moldova, the Krajina region of Bosnia. So I’ve confidently expected for some time that things would come to a head, and there would be a civil war precipitated by the secession of the eastern provinces to rejoin Russia. There’s been a great deal of instability in Ukraine over the years, but nothing remotely approaching the level that I expected.
- The return of the German far-right. Austria has one. The Netherlands has one. Belgium has one. France has one. Hungary has one. Why does Germany not have a substantial far-right party threatening the established political order? (No, the Free Democrats do not count; it’s the right-most portion of the established political order, not a fringe populist party threatening the order from the outside.) Perhaps it’s because Germany was so thoroughly crushed upon losing World War II. Perhaps it’s because Germany has genuinely reckoned with the Nazi legacy in the way that, say, Austria has not. But I never expected it to last. I always assumed that the post-Cold War order matured, Germany – with so many problems similar to its neighbors – would begin to develop a commensurately similar political complexion, including a threatening far-right party that scared the bejeezus out of everybody. I had assumed that this party would, ironically, develop out of the left-wing SPD simply because of the ossie connection, but regardless, the point is it hasn’t really happened.
- The implosion of North Korea. Maybe this isn’t exactly a “bad thing” since North Korea suffers under one of the most evil regimes on earth, but the implosion would also bring enormous suffering, which is why it makes the cut. What accounts for the extraordinary stability of this mad, horrible regime? Once Kim Il Sung passed into the domain of heroes and legends, how did his little brat maintain control? And how is the system still holding together now that the brat himself is likely incapacitated at a minimum, if he hasn’t actually joined his father? Why have we not seen anything resembling a succession crisis such as frequently plague autocracies? Why hasn’t the constant flow of people out of North Korea into Manchuria provoked some kind of popular unrest? I’ve been expecting the regime to collapse for years now, with predictably horrible humanitarian consequences that nobody seems to be able to prepare for in advance even when they are entirely predictable, but it hasn’t happened.
So: what are your entries? What bad thing have you been confidently expecting any day now for years, but it just doesn’t happen?
It’s a little recent, but I’m surprised that CBO didn’t cave on the health care bill, and that the dems didn’t ram through a bill before the august recess.
I’m surprised that the muni bond market hasn’t collapsed.
I’m surprised that Al Quada hasn’t come up with an effective terror strategy.
— J Mann · Sep 24, 04:14 PM · #
Virulent, crippling and widespread infectious disease.
— Sanjay · Sep 24, 04:52 PM · #
* Simultaneous or pulsed, randomly and nationally distributed soft-target attacks on our malls or schools using two or three man swat teams ala Mumbai (or Inglourious Basterds for that matter). Pure irrational chaos seems like an obvious winner for any terrorist group worth a damn.
* I was going to say an epic pandemic, but I saw Sanjay’s post during preview. Instead, I’ll go with Joker Products.
* My liver throwing in the towel.
— Kristoffer V. Sargent · Sep 24, 05:06 PM · #
NPR joining in the Dan Brown hype. No, wait — damn!
— Sanjay · Sep 24, 05:12 PM · #
The mutation of the Third World into a self-aware and angry Third Estate.
— Kristoffer V. Sargent · Sep 24, 05:17 PM · #
What is Peak Oil, Alex?
— Tony Comstock · Sep 24, 05:28 PM · #
Fascinating topic.
Based on my extensive research into German politics known as “reading Matt Yglesias’ blog as he travels in Germany during election season”. I think there’s a chance the German far-right will be back with a vengance within the next decade or two.
I don’t know how widely anticipated it was, but I think the fact that China has become relatively more free rather than less free post-Tianeman is a surprise. Query whether it’s “more free if you’re part of the Han ethnic minority; less free otherwise” but I don’t have enough information on the subject.
I’d say it’s surprising that no former Communist Bloc country has seen a successful political party embrace a return to the old economic order. This isn’t really on the same scale of bad, but it would have been very disconcerting.
And I think I’m surprised that HIV/AIDS looks like it will kill tens of millions or maybe a hundred million people, rather hundreds of millions or maybe a billion people.
— Nicholas Beaudrot · Sep 24, 05:37 PM · #
The reinstatement of Pluto as a planet; a ‘Cheer-up Freddie’ blogathon.
— Kristoffer V. Sargent · Sep 24, 05:40 PM · #
A nuclear power in South America.
— pc · Sep 24, 05:58 PM · #
“I’m surprised that Al Quada hasn’t come up with an effective terror strategy.”
The problem is that if they did come up with an effective strategy that succeeded, it would fail spectacularly. If terrorism works and the US becomes truly terrorized, as in not knowing what will happen next, there will be an animalistic demand, from soccer moms to Lutheran priests, to destroy everything that even looks like terrorism.
— mike farmer · Sep 24, 06:43 PM · #
Why do you imply NoKo is weak? NoKo is strong. They eat dirt. Not soyburgers and leaves like in the soft south and weak west. They believe.
Oh, you’ve been expecting them to fall? Keep waiting as you fall into debt, watch tv, and go into morphine coma in your old age, foolish yanqui. They’ve got all millenium.
Already outlasted Maddy and Condi. Who you’ve got next? Oh no, Hillary! So scared. Not really.
You believe in force of invisible parallels and words. They believe in people and history, inevitable liberation of Seoul, and the beauty of a unified peninsula. (And don’t think they’ve forgotten your crimes, Japan!)
You are impudent, weak American. They will not fold – no implosions: think explosion. All over your face!. When they are ready.
NoKo is patient. Just getting ready. NoKo will win this war yet. The cease-fire is over when they say it is.
— Chevy Ford · Sep 24, 08:04 PM · #
Bad: Quebec independence
Worse: Full Kenya civil war
Worst: Continued soft target terror attacks in US by al Qaeda, as Kristoffer said.
— zak · Sep 24, 09:30 PM · #
Sanjay’s plague; Nuclear warfare breaks out between Pakistan and India; nuclear/radiological/disease terrorism
— Adam Greenwood · Sep 24, 09:37 PM · #
A solar flare that acts as an EMP pulse; climate altering volcano; massive earthquake in California
— Adam Greenwood · Sep 24, 09:40 PM · #
Nicolas Cage accepts a new role.
— johnmark12 · Sep 24, 10:12 PM · #
Oh, one other thing, Make and KM releasing a Tommy Lee/Pamela Anderson style home sex tape.
— Tony Comstock · Sep 24, 11:56 PM · #
A large-scale anti-Jewish pogrom in Europe.
— Withywindle · Sep 25, 04:28 AM · #
In reference to the “Ukrainian Civil War” bit, what in God’s name is Noah talking about? I’ve lived in Ukraine, where all my relatives live, for the better part of a decade and for professional reasons have immersed myself in the politics of the place, interviewing the big politicians and whatnot, and as stunningly screwed-up as this country is, I’ve never heard the idea of a “civil war” mentioned. I guess the fringe nationalist and leftist parties must spout that kind of talk — I guess, maybe, perhaps, potentially — but you never hear it anywhere near the mainstream discourse. “Civil war” simply isn’t on the cards. This is sorta the same as if a Ukrainian blogger started talking about how surprised he is that, like, Washington State hasn’t declared war on Idaho and Oregan yet or something, cuz it’s such an obvious idea. You’d be like, What? Kinda points out the limits of this whole dopey Omniscient Blogger thing.
— plumtree · Sep 25, 01:23 PM · #
plumtree: really? You’ve never heard the possibility of civil war mentioned from any Ukrainian politician in the last decade?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4040041.stm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200705/s1933926.htm
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-risks-wrath-of-russia-as-yushchenko-sides-with-the-west-902906.html
— Noah Millman · Sep 25, 01:37 PM · #
Virulent, crippling and widespread infectious disease.
The former two reduce the possibility of the latter.
— Freddie · Sep 25, 01:38 PM · #
a ‘Cheer-up Freddie’ blogathon.
Classy!
— Freddie · Sep 25, 01:39 PM · #
That someone would solicit online the worst case scenarios my life is a constant battle to keep from thinking about with such a paranoid intensity that they eclipse external reality and I come to believe myself immersed in a virulent crippling disease outbreak while watching the Ukrainian civil war with members of the newly ascendant German far Right, and not on television.
— Matt Feeney · Sep 25, 03:27 PM · #
Sorry, Matt. How about next time I post about wonderful things that will never happen? Would that make you feel better?
— Noah Millman · Sep 25, 03:43 PM · #
There is not really an intelligent defense of the assertion that “virulent” reduces the possibility of “widespread.”
Doing my bit to prevent Sargent’s nightmare.
— Sanjay · Sep 25, 04:38 PM · #
Well, I just mean that the higher the mortality rate of an infectious disease, the less chance it has to spread— the reason Ebola hasn’t ever become a wide-ranging problem, geographically, is because it is so deadly; people can’t spread it very far because they die too quickly, or so I’ve read. Can’t find the link at the moment, I think it was from Slate.
— Freddie · Sep 25, 04:45 PM · #
I think the post was specifically in reference to that new strain of HIV that sprung up briefly in 2005. Could be wrong.
— Freddie · Sep 25, 04:49 PM · #
I haven’t been asked to guest-blog for Andrew Sullivan.
— Matt Frost · Sep 25, 05:00 PM · #
So the issue is, you have a wrong concept of virulence. Ebola has a bitch of a mortality rate (but Marburg’s only maybe a quarter? And I mean, you’ve had Ebola at a big hospital in Colorado, so? It’s actually not so terribly virulent as, say, flu).
By virulent typically we mean, contagious. Also can be used to refer to propetries of a critter which enable it to subvert host defenses. Things can be widespread without being tremendously virulent — but it helps.
— Sanjay · Sep 25, 05:08 PM · #
Or. well, Reston is a better example because it’s asymptomatic, but still the reason we don’t all have Ebola is it seems not be be so virulent.
— Sanjay · Sep 25, 05:17 PM · #
As an occasional inhabitant of Ukraine, I have to second plumtree. Talking about civil war in Ukraine is like talking about civil war in America. If you actually ask someone who lives there, the response will be one of total confusion: they’d wonder if you’re perhaps confusing their country with somewhere else. A Ukrainian looking at your links would go, “hmmm well i see why you might think that if you really skewed the reporting (and why neocon affiliated think tank types might hype things up) but really we’re talking about civil disaffection rather than civil war. Basically, just as likely as civil war in, say, India. And those guys in the Causasus? They’re nutters.”
Also, yes, Germans have totalled taken on the shame of Nazism (in a way that the Austrians haven’t for example). Utterly. They really, really get it. They think about it all the time. There’s not going to be a demagogic movement in Germany for decades or more.
— Duncan in London · Sep 25, 05:21 PM · #
So the issue is, you have a wrong concept of virulence.
I think you’re right!
— Freddie · Sep 25, 05:38 PM · #
Far Right = anyone who doesn’t think ethnic Europeans of German, Austrian (German), Hungarian (Magyar) or whatever stripe should continue their demographically suicidal policies on immigration, taxes, and social policy.
— stari_momak · Sep 26, 12:47 AM · #
Re: I’m surprised that Al Quada hasn’t come up with an effective terror strategy.
Al Qaida does not have an effective strategy (terrorist or not) because Al Qaida doesn’t even have a realistic set of concrete goals to achieve. Terrorism rarely works as a atrategy anyway, and the few cases where uithas (e.g., the independence of Algeria) those using it as a weapon had a concrete, limited but quite practical and doable in mind. Al Qaida’s “goals” are vague, mystic mumbo-jumbo with about as much basis in reality as hastening the Second Coming or bringing about the final Incarnation of Vishnu. Even if one concedes that the religious underpinnings of such desires are real, still Deity tends to have its own time table and is not noticeably responsive to human inducements.
— Jon · Sep 26, 06:34 AM · #
deranged = using the term “demographically suicidal” in reference to a country or group, as if ‘a people’ were a real, unified, thinking, feeling, acting, living entity.
— raha · Sep 26, 06:38 PM · #