February 5 Is Still A Long Way Away
1. Mitt Romney loses New Hampshire and Michigan; functionally, he’s out of the race. He has plenty of money still, but nothing to spend it on. Everyone’s looking at the race as McCain vs. Huckabee for the nomination. Romney’s only hope is either a brokered convention (which would be unlikely to swing his way), or to be chosen as VP. But by whom? Not McCain – he hates Romney’s guts. Not Huckabee – with him it’s not personal, but what’s the payoff? But there is one candidate who could use someone with credibility with the social right and a reputation for competence and clean living. So: Romney drops out and endorses Rudy Giuliani. Which endorsement pulls Rudy back to first place in Florida, a victory he rides to a collection of bicoastal victories on February 5th and the nomination.
2. Hillary goes into free-fall in New Hampshire, and Edwards winds up coming in a surprisingly close second to Obama. Edwards roars into South Carolina, and the native son squeaks out a narrow victory over Obama as the Clinton campaign finally and completely implodes. And suddenly it becomes apparent that it wasn’t that Obama and Edwards had been splitting the anti-Clinton vote, but that Clinton and Edwards were splitting the traditional Democratic vote. And on February 5th, Edwards wins a plurality of delegates, Clinton drops out and endorses him, and Edwards rolls on to the nomination.
I don’t think either of the above will happen – these are not predictions. Just pointing out how much plot could be left in this baby.
It still seems plausible to me that Romney might lose new Hampshire and win Michigan, or even win both. Likewise the Giuliani wins-Florida and then gets a plurality on 2/5 also seems plausible.
There are scenarios for Edwards, but they seem unbelievably slim. The Clinton collapse has to happen very, very fast; nearly all the undecideds have to break for Clinton and not Obama; or South Carolina has to end up turning on race (not in the campaign itself, but just in people’s voting habits), with the candidates splitting the African-American vote 70 O-20 C-10 E, while the white vote goes overwhelmingly for Edwards; he takes big chunks of the Midwest and White South (Tennessee, Missouri, Oklahoma) on Super Tuesday, etc. It’s really drawing to the inside straight flush.
— Nicholas Beaudrot · Jan 7, 04:31 AM · #
No. McCain versus Obama is the only plausible outcome. Respectively, purple nose versus purple lips. May the purple-est one win.
— Franken Blunt · Jan 7, 04:49 AM · #
I dunno. I could see Hillary just cratering and Edwards becoming a consistent second place finisher, but he doesn’t have the money or the heat Obama has, and Hilary won’t totally implode. She has enough money, institutional support, and sheer inertia to stay in this race, maybe win a couple primaries (NY and Ark, maybe a few more) and effectively block Edwards w/o climbing any higher. Unless Obama really screws up, this one looks like his to lose.
Giuliani’s toast. When people realize there’s more to him than all that “America’s Mayor” bushwa they run like hell. His Feb. 5 numbers are already sinking and will only continue to do so. Romney’s sinking too, and I don’t think either one can buoy the other. McCain looks better now, but I wouldn’t rule out Huck actually getting the nod, esp if he wins SC, FL, and the big southern primaries. Hell, even Fred Thompson, despite his best efforts, still has a pulse in this race. The stars align right and Huck, McCain, Romney, hell, maybe even Fred gets the nod.
Not Rudy though. Ron Paul becomes president before Rudy.
— Justin K. · Jan 7, 05:22 AM · #
None of you guys are Republicans or follow the politics of that party much. Frank Lutz’s focus group LOVED Romney (perhaps a little too late) and liked both his positive attitude and the command of the facts, desire to make America more competitive against China and India in economic threat terms.
McCain is going nowhere. The base hates him on Immigration, and be sure in places where that really matters (particularly the South, which is being overwhelmed by illegal immigrants) he will be toast.
Huckabee did very poorly with Luntz’s focus group, he was evasive and shift and in poor command of the facts. His call for non-partisan ship is not going to play well among the non-Evangelical base, and his appalling record on illegal immigration and pardons for cons will sink him in the South.
Fred had good things to say, but lacked energy and focus.
Rudy has written off NH, is betting it all on Florida where his kind of law-and-order strategy has it’s appeal. Lots of retired people there and older people being far more physically vulnerable love law and order.
McCain will probably take NH, with Romney a close second, and Romney STILL leading in delegates. Romney won in Wyoming. Decisively. Fred and Duncan Hunter the only others to pick up delegates.
After NH McCain is out of money and time. Steyn nailed it, a “cranky old coot and nasty codger” being just what the party faithful want? Huckabee will go nowhere in NH, and have great difficulty in SC not to mention Florida where his record will sink him. Romney probably picks up Michigan.
Hillary is not done yet. She has lots of money, Sid Vicious (Blumenthal), and probably plenty of dirt on Obama — drug dealing in his youth, his (terrorist) madrassa days, and the means to force Edwards out early: Rielle Hunter. [The National Enquirer, now owned by a Clinton ally (oddly enough!), has been all over the Edwards love child with Hunter story.] I expect that in the days ahead because that’s how the Clintons operate. She has lots of cash, too much ambition to cash it in after NH, and believes she is owed this.
Rudy HAS fallen nationally, but don’t forget he has many cards in Florida. He personally kicked Arafat out of the UN celebrations. He told the Saudi Sheik where he could stuff his check after the usual “America is at fault” and he prevented Fidel Castro from attending NYC events as well. These are all deeply popular positions in Florida, in contrast to McCain and Huck’s coddling of both Arafat and Fidel.
California also votes early, and out here Mitt seems ahead, on his anti-illegal immigration stance.
— Jim Rockford · Jan 7, 09:28 AM · #
Jim Rockford. Shame on you for pushing blatant lies about Obama and Edwards. That stupid madrassa story has been utterly debunked, he went to a secular school. And your automatic equation of Muslim religious institutions with racism is simple racism. As for the Edwards story, it’s bunk. Hunter’s having a kid with a fellow Edwards staffer and no one has ever claimed otherwise. You’ll need better than flat-out lies.
— Justin K. · Jan 7, 07:12 PM · #
Noah’s 2nd scenario looks less and less kooky all the time.
— Reihan · Jan 7, 07:37 PM · #
“She has lots of cash, too much ambition to cash it in after NH, and believes she is owed this.”
She has raised over $110 million, but my understanding is that she has spent much of it. Obama’s in a similar position, but the red-hot frontrunner should have little problem keeping the contributions coming in. Even the Clintons can’t overcome the laws of economics: when Hillary loses NH, her cash flow position is going to become precarious. She’s got enough gravitas to insure a certain amount of free media coverage, but I think the Clintons are going to start getting heavily outspent by Obama in media buys. She really needs a miracle.
— Jasper · Jan 7, 11:23 PM · #